Moran actually outperforms Elon Musk.*
Not only does the frivolity restart with the borders reopening, but I’m finally updating and re-posting articles from my archives.
Back in May, 2022, Elon Musk suggested on Twitter that if Japan didn’t start doing a lot more shagging, it would become extinct.
At risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 7, 2022
Moran Towers is happy to report that we pre-empted Musk by 21 years in a story first published in the Kansai Time Out in May, 2001. We’re further cock-a-hoop to help him with his numbers a bit.
These figures are 20 years old, but we’ve updated the population prediction and life expectancy.
The rest we’ll update soon. Mebbes.
*PS We doubt Musk cares very much as he predicted PayPal, and we didn’t.
STATS Entertainment
first published by the Kansai Time Out, May 2021
Simon Moran takes a not-entirely scientific look at what the future holds for the nation
With eyes focused firmly on the future, whether the portents look favourable or otherwise, the next 10 years are sure to bring changes both significant and laughable.
The following predictions are based on decidedly dodgy maths and will certainly not appear anywhere else. Looking at statistics from the Nineties, the percentage changes from 1990 to 1999 have been replicated at an equivalent percentage change per year or decade. Figures have been taken to either their logical conclusion, or the resultant figure for the year 2099. Confused? So are we.
In the year 2099, the population of Japan will have fallen to 82,414,135 (see below)
Crime
Number of Crimes Reported to the Police
1990 1,636,628
1999 2,165,626
A 32.32% rise. In the year 2099, 46,582,083 crimes will be reported, affecting 56.52% of the population.
Number of Murders Reported
1990 1,238
1999 1,265
A rise of 2.18 %. 1,607 people, 0.002% of the population, will be murdered in 2099.
Robberies
1990 1,653
1999 4,237
Violent Offences
1990 37,899
1999 43,822
A 15.63 % rise. 217,306 violent offences will affect 0.26% of the population in 2099.
Moral Offences, ‘Gambling, indecent acts, etc.’
1990 5,824
1999 7,448
27.9 % up. There will be 110,710 in 2099.
Drug Abuse Violations
1990 16788
1999 19651
17.05 % up. 111,425 people will be caught violating drug laws in 2099.
Arrests of Gang Members
1990 17,028
1999 10,584
37.84% down. This will fall to 45 arrests in 2099 and to 0 in 2169.
Women
Women’s Age (years) at;
First Marriage First Birth
1990 25.9 27.0
1999 26.8 27.9
2099 39.1 40.1
Abortions
1990 456,797
1999 337,314
Approx. 26.16% down. 10,884 by 2099, 0 by the year 2379.
Hourly Earnings of Female Part-time Workers in Service Industries
1990 JPY808
1999 JPY994
2000 23% up, rising to Y9,694 by 2099.
Women in Diet
Feb 1990 45
Mar 1999 68
51.1% up. There will be an all-women Diet by the year 2043.
Housework Sharing, Minutes Performed by Men Daily
1986 6
1996 10
A 67% increase, but women will have to wait until 2046 until men do all the housework, expected to be a total of 244 minutes in double-income households.
Life, Love and Death
Life Expectancy (years)
Men Women
1990 75.92 81.90
1999 77.10 83.99
2099 91.49 111.08
Women will reach an age of 200 in the year 2349, men in 2649.
Divorce
Number Rate per 100 persons
1990 157,608 1.28
1999 250,538 2.00
The number of divorces will reach 38,656,586 in 2099, involving 93.81% of the population.
Traffic Accident Deaths
1990 11,227
1999 9,006
A 19.78% drop. Only 752 people will die horribly on the roads in 2099 and 0 by 2369.
Health and Wealth
Consumption of Alcohol, Litres per person, per year
1990 100.1
1999 100.7
We will be consuming 0.58 more litres of alcohol per month in 2101.
Percentage of Smokers
1990 36.7
1999 33.6 will drop to less than 1% in the year 2356.
Monthly Household Income
1990 JPY521,757
1999 JPY574,676
Rising to JPY1,671,785 in 2099.
Savings per Household
1990 JPY13,530,000
1999 JPY17,377,000
In 2099 each household will have JPY270,569,910 stashed under the futon.
Households with Cars
% Per Household
1990 79.5 1.12
1999 83.6 1.30
Rising to 100% in 2031, when there will be 6.96 cars per household.
Households with Personal Computers
1990 11.5
1999 38.6
100% some time in 2004.
Households with Video Cameras
1990 23.7 %
1999 37.9 %
100% in 2015.
Price of Houses in Keihanshin
1993 JPY44,880,000
2000 JPY37,250,000
Price of an individual house lot. A drop of 17%. Houses to be given away in the Keihanshin area from the year 2658.
Home and Away
Number of Non-Japanese Residents
1992 1,281,644
1999 1,556,113
Rising to 22,451,912 in 2099. Japanese residents will have been replaced by foreigners in mid-2142, assuming the population from 2099 remains unchanged.
Number of Japanese Living Abroad
1990 620,174
1999 795,852
12,281,482 in 2099 and all Japanese to be living abroad by 2169.
Work
Unemployment Rates %
1990 2.1
1999 4.7
Will reach 100% sometime in 2023
Average Holidays per Year per Worker.
1990 101.8
1999 113.2
Everyone to enjoy 365 days holiday a year before the end of 2094.
All statistics taken from the Japan Information Network.
In January 1997, The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimated the population in 2050 to be 100,496,000. Applying a mean decrease of –0.404%, taken from the % changes given for the years 1995 to 2050, arrives at a figure of 82,414,135 for 2099.
2022 update:
The IPSS now puts the Japanese population projections as follows:
2065: 88.08 million,
2116: 50.56 million.
Taking an average annual decline of 0.83525% between those two last predictions, we see that one day in 4329, Musk’s prediction will come true and the population of Japan will be zero, the last resident having lived entirely alone for 131 years, having reached an age of 32,570, based on the annual 0.255% increase above.
However, also see Japanese replacement by foreigners as above.